Burton and Seaboyer: Canada can do much better than join the ‘Golden Dome’ defence

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Very soon, the Mark Carney government’s much-needed investment in Canada’s military will require urgent, historic choices regarding defence priorities and generational financial commitments. But as ministers and policymakers dissect options such as buying cripplingly expensive F-35 fighter jets, there is one move they should not make.

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This spring, the day after King Charles opened Parliament with a speech emphasizing Canadian sovereignty, U.S. President Donald Trump invited Canada to join his proposed “Golden Dome for America” missile defence system. The president indicated two ways for this to happen: Canada can either become the 51st state (which is a non-starter), or it would have to pony up a staggering $61-billion U.S. (For context, Canada’s total 2024-25 military budget is $28.5-billion U.S.)

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Canada should decline Trump’s invitation.

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Beyond the absurdity of handing such a massive sum to a leader who openly threatens to conquer Canada through economic coercion, the Golden Dome requires technology that does not yet even exist, and which will be extremely difficult to develop. (The system is likely to rely heavily on Elon Musk’s SpaceX “aerial moving target identifier,” a next-gen system that’s still under development and would be unlikely to ever reach a deployable stage if Trump cancels Musk’s government funding.)

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Most modern Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles carry “multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles” (MIRVs), meaning one missile can becomes 12 independent warheads, only one of which is needed to destroy an entire city. So far, no defence system has come close to a 100-per-cent probability of destroying all incoming missiles, especially those with technology that misleads weapon interception systems.

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Effectively integrating diverse systems — ground-based radars, sea-based assets, air-based sensors, and a new constellation of space-based sensors and interceptors — into a cohesive “system of systems” is extraordinarily complex. This includes ensuring seamless data fusion, command and control, and communication with near-zero latency.

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In Israel, the Iron Dome has generally done well with defending a relatively small territory. We have seen in recent days, though, that Iranian missiles are increasingly able to get through the Iron Dome and strike Israeli targets. Defending the entire U.S. (nearly 500 times the size of Israel) presents an immense challenge in terms of the sheer number of sensors and interceptors needed for adequate coverage. One can only imagine the odds of successfully adding Canada’s huge land mass to the mix. However, there is huge money at stake for some defence industry companies and significant political benefits, which no doubt fuels the enthusiasm some military experts express for the Golden Dome.